Last night, the New York Yankees took a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series by beating the Philadelphia Phillies, 7-4. So, should we start planning the Yankees' 27th championship parade or do the Phillies have a shot at pulling off the second-greatest postseason comeback in MLB history?
Personally, I think the Yankees will win, but not before the Phills push this series to a Game 7.
A couple observations and a few ideas for how the Phillies can get back into this series.
"Tonight, tonight"
To me, one of the biggest storylines of the WS has been Yankees manager Joe Girardi out-maneuvering Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel. It's all about how you use your bullpen. The Yankees have thrown a total of 596 pitches, while the Phillies have thrown 573. Fairly equal. But, when you take a look at how the managers have used their bullpens, something becomes clear; Girardi has used his a whole lot better (probably because he has Mariano Rivera).
The Yankees bullpen has thrown 122 pitches (subtracting Rivera's 52 pitches), while the Phillies pen has thrown 181. The Yankee relievers throw an average of 12 pitches per appearance, the Philly relievers are throwing over 18 pitches per appearance. Manuel's biggest fault has been a reluctance to bringing in a new reliever mid-inning. Out of the Phillies 10 calls to the bullpen, seven times a RP was allowed to start and finish an inning. The Yankees are five out of 10 (or 8/13 including Rivera's appearances). Basically, what I'm trying to say is Girardi has done an excellent job of micromanaging his bullpen, while Manuel simply has been managing the WS like it's the regular season.
In order for the Phillies to survive another game, Manuel must start playing the match-ups.
Or maybe, he'll get lucky and Cliff Lee will throw another nine innings of no-ER-ball.
Easy on the clutch
The Phillies are 8 for 31 (.258) with RISP. The Yanks are 8 for 27 (.296) with RISP. The Phillies are batting .220 for the WS. The Yankees are batting .235. The Phillies have hit seven home runs and all of them were solo shots. The Yankees have hit five home runs and four of them were solo shots. The Phillies have struck out 41 times, while drawing 10 walks. The Yankees have struck out 36 times, while drawing 15 walks.
The numbers are fairly similar, which means the Yankees are fortunate to have a 3-1 lead.
The Phillies are getting chances to score, but aren't executing in the clutch. If they're going to get back into this series, they have to start getting base hits (or HRs) with RISP.
It all sounds simple and when you get right down to it, it really is. The Phillies need to view their deficit as matching a three game losing streak with a three game winning streak. And, the only way to break a losing streak is by winning one game.
If they do win tonight's Game 7a, all of the pressure is thrown on the Yankees, which means anything could happen...
Game 5 prediction; the Phillies send the series (and champagne) back to New York with a 7-3 victory.
