The AP's NFL MVP hasn't been awarded to a player on a non-playoff team since the Buffalo Bills' OJ Simpson won it in 1973. This makes identifying this year's MVP a lot easier; you look at the 12 playoff teams, identify their best player and you have a pool of about 12 candidates. Put the twelve or so candidates in order and you have your likely MVP.
AFC
Titans- They may have been the best team in the regular season, but they certainly don't have the best player(s). The Titans best players were RB's Chris Johnson (1,228 yds, 9 TDs) and Lendale White (773 yds, 15 TDs). Unfortunately, neither had a dominant season.
Steelers- Another team which relies on the mantra that the sum be greater than the individual parts. No Steeler had a real career year. QB Ben Roethlisberger has had better seasons. RB Willie Parker was injured for a long stretch. The only real standout on this team is Safety Troy Polamalu (74 Tackles, 7 INT, 17 PD), but he certainly doesn't deserve the MVP.
Dolphins- Two players had great seasons for the Fins; QB Chad Pennington (3,653 yds, 19 TDs, 7 INT) and LB Joey Porter (17.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles). Still, neither put up numbers worthy of winning the MVP.
Chargers- LaDanian Tomlinson was a disappointment or maybe the Chargers became a pass-first team. QB Phillip Rivers had a great year (4,009 yds, 34 TDs, 11 INT) and is our first legitimate candidate for MVP. However, the Chargers only won eight games and barely snuck into the playoffs, so this might move him down a few pegs.
Colts- Clearly, this team remains in QB Peyton Manning's hands. Early in the season, when Manning was bouncing back from two knee surgeries, the Colts looked dead in the water. Now, the Colts have won nine games in-a-row and Manning has put up numbers (4,002 yds, 27 TD, 12 INT). However, looking at Manning's previous numbers, these have to be considered disappointing.
Ravens- A defensive player hasn't won the MVP since 1986, when LB Lawrence Taylor was on the prowl. This might be the year where it might happen again. Safety Ed Reed (9 INT,1 FF, 2 TDs) has been the best defensive player this year and is the Ravens strongest chance at taking home the MVP.
NFC
Giants- No one standouts on the Giants roster and I think that's how they like it. QB Eli Manning had a decent year. RB's Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward shared the load much of the year because of various injuries. The only standout player is DE Justin Tuck (12 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT). But, his numbers clearly don't match-up to Ed Reed's, which means the MVP won't likely come from the Giants.
Panthers- If there were four games left in the season, RB DeAngelo Williams (1,515 yds, 18 TDs) would win the MVP. The problem is Williams had only two 100-yard games and a total of two TDs in his first eight games.
Vikings- RB Adrian Peterson definitely didn't suffer through a sophomore slump. His 1,760 yds rushing won him a rushing title and he tacked on 10 TDs. Peterson was a model of consistency only rushing for less than 75 yards once in his 16 games. It's safe to say that the Vikings would not be in the playoffs without AP.
Cardinals- Four weeks ago, we could've awarded QB Kurt Warner (4,583 yds, 30 TDs, 14 INT) with his third MVP. Now, it isn't looking like the case since the Cards lost four of their last six. WR Larry Fitzgerald (96 rec, 1,431 yds, 12 TDs) should be considered as well. If WR Anquan Boldin didn't miss a quarter of the season, he would be the Cardinals leading candidate.
Falcons- A lot of credit has to be given to the dirty birds. Acquiring RB Michael Turner was one of the best moves of the past offseason and QB Matt Ryan (who won the offensive ROY today) turned out to be the steal of the past draft. Both deserve mentioning in the MVP conversation. It's tough to declare the Falcons top candidate, but the numbers say Michael Turner (1,699 yds, 17 TDs) is the man.
Eagles- Another team which doesn't have a strong candidate. QB Donovan McNabb had an off season statistically, as did RB Brian Westbrook. I think Westbrook (936 yds rush, 402 yds receiving, 14 TDs) remains their best chance, since I doubt they make the playoffs without everything he brings to the field.
Rest of the field
Although it's unlikely a player who didn't make the playoffs will win the MVP, it's tough not considering QB Drew Brees (5,069 yds, 34 TDs 17 INT). Brees came within 16 yards of breaking the single season record and was in the top 5 of many important passer categories. Brees will be one of the top three in the MVP balloting.
My Top 13 MVP Candidates
- Peyton Manning
- Ed Reed
- Drew Brees
- Michael Turner
- Adrian Peterson
- Kurt Warner
- Phillip Rivers
- DeAngelo Williams
- Chris Johnson
- Chad Pennington
- Justin Tuck
- Troy Polamalu
- Brian Westbrook